The Death of the MP3 (And Why It's Still Everywhere)

In 2017, the Fraunhofer Institute — the German organization that invented the MP3 — announced they were terminating their licensing program. Headlines immediately declared the format dead. "MP3 is officially dead," wrote multiple outlets. "The MP3 era is over."

That was nearly a decade ago. The MP3 isn't just still around — it's probably on your phone right now.

A Brief History of a "Dying" Format

The MP3 was born in 1993. By 1995, it had already transformed piracy. By 1999, Napster had made it a household name. And by 2001, the iPod had made it the default way to listen to music.

But almost from the beginning, people predicted its demise.

First it was AAC, the "MP3 killer" that Apple adopted for iTunes. Then it was FLAC, the lossless format that audiophiles swore would replace compressed audio entirely. Then streaming was supposed to make file formats irrelevant. Then Opus was going to be the new universal standard.

Each time, the experts had compelling technical arguments. And each time, MP3 just... kept going.

Why MP3 Refuses to Die

There's a lesson here about technology adoption that goes beyond audio formats.

Ubiquity trumps perfection. Is AAC technically better than MP3 at the same bitrate? Yes. Does it matter when every single device on Earth plays MP3? Not really. The MP3 became the JPEG of audio: not the best, but universally understood.

Good enough is good enough. For most people, in most situations, a 192 kbps MP3 sounds perfectly fine. We don't listen to music in anechoic chambers with reference headphones. We listen on subway platforms, in cars, through phone speakers. The theoretical superiority of other formats disappears in real-world conditions.

The network effect is real. When everyone uses the same format, there's no friction in sharing. You can text someone an MP3 and know they can play it. Try that with FLAC.

The Streaming Red Herring

"But wait," you might say. "Streaming has made file formats irrelevant. Nobody downloads MP3s anymore."

Except... that's not quite true.

Yes, Spotify and Apple Music dominate music listening. But there are tons of scenarios where you want an actual file:

• Podcast episodes for offline listening
• Audio from videos you've recorded
• Music that's not on streaming services
• Custom ringtones and notification sounds
• Sound effects for projects
• Audio from online lectures and tutorials
• DJ sets and mixes
• Audiobooks from various sources

Streaming is wonderful for discovering and casually listening to music. But the moment you want to do something with audio — edit it, keep it forever, use it in a project — you need a file. And that file is probably going to be an MP3.

The "Death" That Wasn't

When Fraunhofer ended their licensing program in 2017, it didn't kill MP3. It actually made it stronger.

The patents had expired. The format was now completely free to use, forever. No more licensing fees for hardware manufacturers. No more royalty payments for software developers. MP3 went from "industry standard" to "public property."

The death announcement was really a birth announcement: MP3 was now free as in freedom, not just free as in beer.

What MP3 Gets Right

Looking back, the MP3's success isn't an accident. The format made a series of correct tradeoffs:

Size vs. quality. The compression ratio was aggressive enough to be useful (files about 10x smaller than CD audio) but not so aggressive that quality suffered obviously.

Simple vs. complex. The format is straightforward. No DRM built-in. No complicated container formats. Just audio data and some metadata.

Backwards compatible. An MP3 from 1995 plays fine on a 2026 device. Try saying that about most technology.

The Future of MP3

Will MP3 eventually be replaced? Probably. But I wouldn't bet on it happening soon.

For a format to replace MP3, it would need to be:

1. Significantly better in a way regular people can perceive
2. Universally supported
3. Royalty-free
4. Simple to use

Opus comes close on technical merits, and it's royalty-free. But it's not universally supported yet. Until you can be confident that any random device will play your Opus file — the way you can with MP3 today — the transition won't happen.

Why This Matters for You

If you're converting videos to audio, MP3 remains the smart default choice. Not because it's the newest or most advanced, but because:

• Every device plays it
• Every app supports it
• You can share it with anyone
• It'll work in 20 years
• Quality is more than good enough

Sometimes the boring choice is the right choice. MP3 isn't exciting, but it works. And it'll keep working long after the next "MP3 killer" has come and gone.

The experts will keep predicting its death. And it'll keep outliving their predictions.